Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Jason Miks.

June 25, 2018

America Could Find Itself in a Jam. Literally

National Security Adviser John Bolton is expected to visit Russia this week. As he does so, he might want to keep something in the back of his mind: if hostilities did break out between Russia and America's increasingly edgy NATO allies, "the most powerful military in the world could get stuck in a traffic jam," Michael Birnbaum writes in the Washington Post. Literally.

"For years after NATO's 2004 expansion into territory that had once been the Soviet Union's, the alliance had no plans for how to defend its new members," Birnbaum writes.

"Russia's 2014 seizure of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula provided a jolt. Western planners went to retrieve their Cold War-era playbooks from the dustbin. But their Russia-fighting muscles had atrophied to the point where they could barely flex, and their ability to move across Europe had decayed.

"[W]hereas Russia has no challenge moving its troops inside its own territory, a thicket of peacetime rules has complicated military movements within Europe."

A Strongman Wins – and Leaves the West Guessing

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan secured reelection Sunday, and will begin his new five-year term armed with "sweeping new powers granted in a narrowly-won referendum last year," CNN reports.

Simon Tisdall writes for The Guardian that Erdogan leaves the West in a bind, and facing a crucial question: Is he a friend or foe?

"Erdoğan's confrontational behavior in northern Syria, where he has threatened US troops working with Kurdish forces to defeat ISIS, has left the Pentagon asking whose side he is on," Tisdall writes. "On the other hand, the US wants and needs Turkey's help for a multitude of reasons. It has use of an important military airbase…It knows there can be no lasting settlement in Syria without Ankara's blessing. And Turkey is, or used to be, a vital buffer against Russian expansionism in the Black Sea region, the Caucasus and the Balkans."

"European governments are in a similar bind. They value Turkey as a secular, democratic and pro-western outpost in a region where such qualities are rare…But they are obliged to temper their deep unhappiness with Erdoğan's domestic abuses and regular anti-European tongue-lashings in order to retain his cooperation in stemming Syrian refugee outflows and tracking ISIS terrorists."

Arab Leaders Kick the Palestinians to the Curb

Jared Kushner's trip to the Middle East last week is the latest reminder that the United States is intent on moving forward on a peace plan with or without the Palestinians – and that their traditional Arab allies aren't going to try to stop it, suggests Dalia Hatuqa in Foreign Policy.

"Palestinians are no longer the focal point of the regional agenda, and PA leaders have grown increasingly uneasy as some Arab leaders have shifted their attention to Iran, fixating on Tehran's involvement in Yemen, Iraq, and Syria," Hatuqa writes.

"Arab leaders frequently profess support for the Palestinian cause, but Palestinians know that these proclamations are often sanctimonious. Much of the aid pledged by Arab donors for Gaza's post-2014 war reconstruction never materialized, and the flow of government aid to the region has all but dried up. Instead, the diplomatic focus of Arab governments has veered primarily to domestic woes and stability, regional adversaries such as Iran, inter-Arab disputes, and fighting off Islamic militancy."

What to Watch This Week

The US Supreme Court winds up its latest term this week. Among the cases still to be decided is one on the legality of the third version of President Trump's travel ban.

US Defense Secretary James Mattis is heading to China for a visit beginning Tuesday. Liu Zhen writes for the South China Morning Post that there are likely to be five issues topping the agenda: China's military build-up in the South China Sea; the US commitment to military ties with Taiwan; efforts to improve military contacts between China and the US; China's potential role in securing North Korean denuclearization; and the possibility of future US inspections of China's new naval and air force hardware.

Mexicans head to the polls Sunday. The key to the election result will be the country's young people, writes Paulina Villegas for The New York Times. "Nearly half of all eligible voters are younger than 39, and one of every five would be voting for the first time. It is an age group profoundly disenchanted with the political establishment and urgently seeking a moral leader to bring about real change," she writes.

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