| | | | How Iran Could Come Out Fighting | | President Trump's tweet warning Iran has added fuel to an increasingly combustible situation. If an ideological Tehran decides it wants to cause mischief in the vital shipping lanes of the Strait of Hormuz, there is plenty that it can do, writes James Stavridis for Bloomberg.
"We know that Iran has detailed plans to close the strait. It would use a variety of means including widespread mining; swarms of small, ultrafast patrol boats; shore-based cruise missiles; manned aircraft; and diesel submarines. Iran would employ a 'layered offense,' stationing diesels in the Arabian Sea on the other side of the strait to harass incoming merchant ships; swarming US and allied warships in the narrow confines of the strait itself; and mining sections of the shipping lanes," Stavridis writes.
"All of this, of course, is illegal under international law, but would have the intended consequence of challenging the US and the Gulf Arabs while driving up oil prices exponentially. (Iran is able to export some oil from its southern coast, bypassing the strait, so its economy might suffer less than the Arabs'.)"
| | Surprise! There Might Be Some Progress on North Korea | | | North Korea appears to have taken an early step in "fulfilling a commitment made by Kim Jong Un at the June 12 Singapore Summit," the 38 North website says in a new analysis of satellite imagery of a North Korean launch facility. Most notable among the facilities that 38 North says appear to be being dismantled are the "rail-mounted processing building—where space launch vehicles are prepared before moving them to the launch pad—and the nearby rocket engine test stand used to develop liquid-fuel engines for ballistic missiles and space launch vehicles. "Since these facilities are believed to have played an important role in the development of technologies for the North's intercontinental ballistic missile program, these efforts represent a significant confidence building measure on the part of North Korea." - Not so fast? But Adam Mount, a senior defense analyst at the Federation of American Scientists, tells AP: "The actions at Sohae are a helpful signal that Pyongyang wants to continue negotiations, but do not in themselves advance nuclear disarmament."
"North Korea still has not disclosed or offered to dismantle facilities that produce or store nuclear or missile systems, or the means to transport the missiles. So far, the facilities dismantled have been peripheral to these core functions."
| | We Already Know the Real Winner of Pakistan's Election Tomorrow | | | Pakistanis head to the polls Wednesday for the country's general election. Imran Khan is the front-runner, but the truth is that whoever comes out on top in the voting, the real winner will likely be the same, writes Husain Haqqani for Foreign Policy: The military. "The Pakistani military has become a prisoner of its own system. The generals want the facade of democracy, but they do not let any politician grow into the job; when problems inevitably emerge, they believe those deficiencies are exclusively attributable to the incompetence and corruption of politicians. And so: out with the old, in with the new, all blessed by the military," writes Haqqani, a former Pakistani ambassador to the United States. "But there is a complete unwillingness to recognize that the military's obsession with India, its support of jihadi terrorism for the last several decades…might also have something to do with the country's reputation as a state perpetually stricken by crisis. It is a damning indictment of the military's priorities that even though it boasts the world's sixth-largest army…Pakistan still has the world's highest newborn mortality rate." | | Team Trump Pokes a Dragon | | Growing tensions between the US and China aren't just about trade – the Trump administration and Congress appear increasingly willing to challenge China over its position on Taiwan. Washington and Beijing could be on a collision course, suggests John Pomfret in The Washington Post.
"For several decades, Washington followed a policy that shied away from irritating China when it came to Taiwan. As the island of 23 million evolved into one of Asia's most vibrant democracies…successive American administrations were careful not to provoke Beijing even as they tried to shelter Taiwan diplomatically and provide for the territory's defense," Pomfret writes.
Fast forward to today, and the Trump administration has been pushing Taiwan "to substantially increase its defense spending."
"The wild card in this equation is Trump. Will Trump sell Taiwan down the river in order to make a deal with China over trade or North Korea, or will he listen to the advice from Congress and give Taiwan the help it needs?"
| | Europe, This Is Your Doing, Not Putin's | | Europe's leaders might be tempted to lay the blame for the continent's divisions at Vladimir Putin's door. But the truth is that Russia is largely a sideshow, writes Walter Russell Mead for The Wall Street Journal. Western European leaders only have themselves to blame for the fact that Central and Eastern Europe are drawn to the populist battle cry.
Western Europe has failed to "integrate the countries of Central and Eastern Europe into Western prosperity and institutional life. The world's 10 fastest-shrinking countries are all in Eastern Europe: Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Serbia and Ukraine. All expect to see their populations shrink at least 15% by 2050," Mead writes.
"Romania and Bulgaria—where living standards are lower than in Turkey—are exceptionally poor. Conditions are better elsewhere, but the gap between prosperous European countries like Germany and post-communist states like Poland remains immense." | | | | | | |
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