Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Jason Miks.

October 16, 2018

The One Thing America Shouldn't Do with Saudi Arabia

The Trump administration should not be tempted to try to sweep the disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi under the rug, writes Walter Russell Mead in The Wall Street Journal. But as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visits the Kingdom, it's essential the United States doesn't overreact, either.

"[T]o do what the Iran-deal chorus and the Erdogan and Muslim Brotherhood apologists want—to dissolve the US-Saudi alliance in a frenzy of righteousness—would be an absurd overreaction that plays into the hands of America's enemies. It could also stampede the Saudis into even more recklessness. France was not expelled from the European Community or NATO in 1985 when its agents sank the Greenpeace ship Rainbow Warrior, killing an innocent man in the process," Mead writes.

"Without lionizing, ostracizing or enabling [Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman], Mr. Pompeo needs to get to the heart of the matter: Saudi insecurity. To restore balance and sobriety to its foreign policy, Saudi Arabia needs to calm down, and only the US can provide the assurances to make that possible."

Memo to Saudi Arabia: It's Not 1973 Anymore

A leading Saudi commentator made headlines when he warned the Kingdom could use oil as a weapon if the United States imposed sanctions over Khashoggi's disappearance. There's one problem with such a threat, writes Jeff Colgan for The Washington Post: This isn't 1973.

"Back then, the oil market functioned mostly on long-term contracts. Today's more flexible global oil system mostly uses spot markets—meaning a buyer can easily find oil from another country. So the United States could replace its imports from Saudi Arabia relatively easily with imports from elsewhere," Colgan writes.

"The United States does not even import much oil from Saudi Arabia. It currently produces domestically more than half the oil it consumes. And its biggest foreign oil supplier, by far, is Canada."

Why Trump Would Miss Mattis

Trump's claim in his 60 Minutes interview that Defense Secretary James Mattis "is sort of a Democrat" suggests the President might finally be tiring of some of the policy differences between the two, writes Eli Lake for Bloomberg. But he'd miss the retired four-star Marine general more than he realizes.

Mattis "has been a key voice calming allies in NATO. He managed to soften Trump's initial ban on transgender Americans serving in the military. He was one of the people who persuaded Trump to embrace a strategy of keeping troops in Afghanistan to fight for the elected government in Kabul," Lake writes.

"Trump is well within his rights, of course, to hire a secretary of defense that will more enthusiastically implement his policies. But Trump should also appreciate that the man who currently has the job is one of the few remaining public figures in America who has the trust of both parties. Trump may find that irritating, but it will help him in the next crisis."

Iran's Syrian Trap for Team Trump?

The US announcement last month that it will maintain a military presence in Syria as long as Iranian forces and Iran-backed militias remain there is a reversal of policy with significant implications, write Colin P. Clarke and Ariane Tabatabai in The Atlantic. The Trump administration should be wary of getting sucked into a never-ending endgame.

"Israel's 18-year occupation of Lebanon from 1982 to 2000 was a textbook case of mission creep—reason enough for the United States to avoid similar mistakes and to strongly reconsider a long-term presence in the Levant. If President Trump is truly intent on waiting out the Iranians, an unending timetable for the withdrawal of troops is far more problematic for Washington than it is for Tehran. Iran is a regional power, not some intruder marching into someone else's neighborhood. Its troops—Iranian military, the Revolutionary Guards, and Shia militias deployed by Tehran—are actually welcome by Assad," they write.

You Get an Internet! And You, And You…

The internet was once seen as a force for the promotion of "democracy through the free flow of information," The New York Times notes in an editorial. That will still be true in the future, depending on which of the three internets you are served by—American, Chinese, or European.

"There's a world of difference between the European Union's General Data Protection Regulation, known commonly as G.D.P.R., and China's technologically enforced censorship regime, often dubbed 'the Great Firewall.' But all three spheres—Europe, America and China—are generating sets of rules, regulations and norms that are beginning to rub up against one another. What's more, the actual physical location of data has increasingly become separated by region, with data confined to data centers inside the borders of countries with data localization laws," the paper notes.

"A chillier relationship with Europe and increasing hostilities with China spur on the trend toward Balkanization—and vice versa, creating a feedback loop. If things continue along this path, the next decade may see the internet relegated to little more than just another front on the new cold war."

Why the World Should Watch China's Arctic Games

China's growing interest in the Arctic is frequently seen in largely economic terms. But there's something else going on, writes Harriet Moynihan for Chatham House. Beijing is trying to shape the rules of the game by getting in early—and that has implications that extend far beyond the Arctic.

"China's push to be a rule shaper in the Arctic fits into a wider pattern of China seeking a more influential role in matters of global governance. This trend is particularly apparent in areas where the rules are still emerging and thus where China feels more confident than in areas traditionally dominated by Western powers," Moynihan writes.

"A similar assertiveness by China is increasingly visible in other emerging areas of international law, such as the international legal framework applicable to cyber operations and international dispute settlement mechanisms relating to trade and investment."

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