| | | | Why the US and Saudis Stay Cozy (It's Not Just About Oil) | | Saudi Arabia's position on the killing of Jamal Khashoggi shifted again Thursday, with the country's attorney general saying that it was premeditated, CNN reports. Don't expect the current debate over US ties with the Kingdom to change the fundamentals of the relationship, Micah Zenko writes for Foreign Policy. And it's not just about oil—it's about geography, too.
"For decades, the United States has professed several vital (and lesser) national interests in the Middle East. These interests include assuring the free flow of oil and natural gas, preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, preventing the emergence of ungoverned areas that terrorist organizations can utilize, containing Iran, and enhancing the capacity of regional militaries to defend their own territory," Zenko writes.
"American political and military officials have consistently contended that the military should have the predominant role in achieving these interests. And, to ensure that military forces and assets can operate with sufficient latitude in the region to achieve said interests, those forces need reliable and predictable access to the airfields, ports, facilities, and airspace located on the sovereign territory of Persian Gulf countries." | | Time to Reassess Trump's Foreign Policy? | | The Trump administration's response to the killing of Jamal Khashoggi deserves the criticism heaped upon it, The Economist's Lexington columnist writes. But from renegotiating NAFTA to talks with the Taliban, it's also starting to appear that the President's unpredictability has some upside, too.
"Thoughtful supporters of the president's foreign policy always acknowledged his shortcomings. Yet they argued that with naivety comes audacity, with chaos unpredictability, with cynicism realpolitik, and that these are qualities a somnambulant superpower lacked in its dealings with the world. This is sounding more plausible," the column argues.
China, for example, is being hit "much harder than America by the trade war between the two countries, [and] President Xi Jinping may be prepared to make concessions. Mr Trump's norm-busting diplomacy would in that case look like a catalyst for progress. In other instances, however, the president's pragmatism, recently manifest in his broader trade policy, may be a welcome safety-check on conservative orthodoxy."
| | Why China's Belt Is Getting Too Tight for Comfort | | | China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)—a massive series of trade deals and infrastructure projects—has been widely seen as an ambitious attempt to project Chinese soft power across Eurasia and the Pacific region. But from Malaysia to the Maldives, Beijing is facing a backlash, writes Christopher Balding in Foreign Affairs.
"Internationally, some of the backlash is geopolitical, as countries grow wary of Beijing's growing influence. But much of it is simply political," Balding writes.
"Unlike Western lenders, China does not require its partners to meet stringent conditions related to corruption, human rights, or financial sustainability. This no-strings approach to investment has fueled corruption while allowing governments to burden their countries with unpayable debts. And citizens of many BRI countries have reacted with anger toward China—an anger that is now making itself felt in elections. Far from expanding Chinese soft power, the BRI appears to be achieving the opposite." | | What Abe and Xi Really Should Be Talking About | | | Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe headed to China this week to meet with President Xi Jinping—the first official visit to the country by a Japanese leader since 2011. The meeting is fitting because Xi looks poised to repeat the mistakes that burst Japan's economic bubble almost thirty years ago, suggests William Pesek for the Nikkei Asian Review. "After six years in power, it is time Xi weaned China off ever-increasing doses of debt. That means curbing the influence of state-owned enterprises to create more space for a vibrant private sector. It means increasing transparency and higher governance standards. It means accelerating efforts to reduce China's dependence on exports, and expanding services," Pesek writes. "Just like Japan these last 28 years, China is treating the obvious fallout from its debt troubles, not the cracks under the surface. That shiny economic exterior is on display for Abe and the world to see. But history will not be kind to the Xi era if Beijing does not get under China Inc.'s hood, and fast." | | Russian President Vladimir Putin looms large in the minds of Western policymakers. But difficult economic headwinds, a high poverty rate and sliding poll ratings offer a chance for the US and others to turn the tables on his government's meddling, writes Michael Dempsey for The Hill.
"While none of these challenges poses an immediate threat to his grip on power, they should remind us that Putin is far better at creating a perception of his strength and political momentum than is warranted by an objective analysis of the underlying economic, political, and social conditions in Russia," Dempsey argues.
"At a time when United States government officials warn that Moscow is continuing its campaign to weaken American democracy and influence our elections, the vulnerabilities offer a fertile playing field for Western messaging efforts inside Russia, especially those highlighting the lagging economy and the practical cost of official corruption on the lives of ordinary Russians."
| | Europe's Choice: Bad or…Bad | | "The European Commission rejected Italy's draft budget Tuesday, the first time the European Union executive has thrown out a government's spending plans since the single currency was introduced nearly 20 years ago," CNN reports. The problem now, writes Luigi Scazzieri for Prospect magazine, is that Europe's options could range from bad to...bad.
"If the Commission takes a hard line, this would reinforce the perception of many Italians that there is one set of rules for France, Germany, and 'acceptable' governments—and another for everybody else," Scazzieri writes. "Italy would be firmly set in a Euroskeptic direction, and the chances of an Italian exit from the eurozone would increase."
But a softer approach "is also fraught with difficulties. Fiscally conservative eurozone member states like Germany would see it as appeasing Italy's populist coalition and its financial irresponsibility." | | | | | | |
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