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Friday, May 31, 2019

Iran and the New 'Chinese Century'

Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good
 
May 30, 2019

Iran and the New 'Chinese Century'

Writing in The National Interest, Nathan Levine of the Asia Society Policy Institute offers up a simple reason why America should avoid conflict with Iran: It would open the door for Chinese global dominance. China is a growing power, and while America scratches its head over how to deal with that fact, a US-Iran war would sap American energy and global clout far more than even the Iraq War did.

Such a conflict would come at a moment, as Arthur Herman writes in The Wall Street Journal, when there are signs that China, Russia, and Iran are each working to dislodge American interests—in other words, a risky time for a Middle East quagmire.

What Will Keep AI from Destroying the World?

Not much, according to Diane Francis, who contrasts artificial intelligence with nuclear weapons in an American Interest essay. Where J. Robert Oppenheimer sounded the alarm about nuclear doomsday (after the bombs his team developed were used on Japan) and prompted the world to develop institutions like the International Atomic Energy Agency and nonproliferation treaties to constrain nuclear weapons as a global threat, no similar network of international constraints exists to rein in the destructive potential of AI. Think-tankers and advocates have cautioned about the dangers of autonomous weapons, like robots and drones that can select and kill human targets, and Francis warns that the world needs an AI-doomsday champion—an Oppenheimer of killer robots—and a system of international cooperation to keep AI in check.

Markets Fear the Tech War

While investors have gotten used to the ups and downs of the US-China tariff war, the (possible) looming tech war is causing more serious worries, Nicholas Spiro writes in the South China Morning Post.

Investors are over-exposed to the tech industry, which faces new questions after President Trump's ban on Huawei, Spiro writes, predicting a sell-off of tech stocks might be necessary to steer Washington and Beijing off a collision course. A tech war could escalate quickly, The Economist writes: If China retaliates by banning Apple or another American firm, the US might suspend trading of Chinese companies listed on the New York exchanges. Chinese firms traded on the NYSE have exemplified the globalized marketplace of tech and investment, and firms like Alibaba are growing wary that the US might not be a sustainable home for their stocks in the long term, the magazine cautions.

Can Shipping Clean Up Its Act?

The global economy could not live without shipping—about 70% of the world's trade value is carried by sea, according to the UN Conference on Trade and Development—but the environment may not be able to live with it. Anjli Raval and Josh Spero write in the Financial Times that shipping is among the dirtiest transportation industries, contributing between 2% and 3% of total world greenhouse-gas emissions and causing health problems along shipping routes.

New fuel standards will arrive in 2020, spurred by a UN maritime body, and it's unclear whether the industry is ready. Ships use some of the dirtiest fuels, and while the new rules apply to sulfur, carbon standards could be next, meaning the industry may face greater changes in years to come, as pressure to reduce global emissions increases across the board. The coming changes pose a big question for the industry that connects global trade, Raval and Spero write.

Stopping the Virtual Caliphate

With its territory gone, ISIS has two choices, Bulent Aras writes in The National Interest: organize an insurgency in Iraq and Syria, or spread its ideology and inspire attacks online. With the latter looming as an appealing option, Aras warns that world governments shouldn't relax their campaign against ISIS; instead, they'll need to take it online, continuing to develop ways to dissuade would-be jihadists and counter propaganda. Governments and social-media companies alike are struggling to confront hateful content, and Aras advises that the task will require creativity, new methods, and international cooperation.
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