| | | | Why the US Doesn't Need a Strategy | | US presidents are sometimes criticized for lacking a grand strategy in conducting US foreign policy, but Michael Fuchs argues in Foreign Policy that having one is overrated.
In recent history, the US has really only had two coherent strategies—containment of the Soviet Union during the Cold War, and President George W. Bush's Global War on Terror—and the latter, Fuchs argues, was ruinous. At other times, bad policies are rationalized in service of a purported strategic direction. Better, then, for policymakers to "embrace the complexity of US interests in the world and dive headfirst into solving specific challenges like climate change and not worry about whether there is a convincing narrative to explain it all." | | How to Defuse Tensions With Iran | | The US standoff with Iran has begun to envelop the international community, with tensions raised over shipping security. In that light, suggestions abound for how to lower the temperature.
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has collected expert commentaries on the topic, and they range widely. Chuck Freilich of Harvard's Belfer Center supports crafting a new nuclear deal that can be a win-win, restricting Iran's missiles but also delivering a greater economic windfall to Tehran; former Iranian nuclear negotiator Seyed Houssain Mousavian suggests the US lift sanctions while entering talks, broaden the nuclear pact to cover Iran's regional rivals, and encourage regional dialogue; Emily B. Landau, meanwhile, urges "unity in the face of Iran's problematic behavior" and for Iran to accept a new, more restrictive deal.
As for Europe's role, a recent paper by the Brussels-based Egmont Institute recommends European powers "openly refus[e] to support any US military action" against Iran, facilitate regional talks, and start cooperating with Tehran on unrelated issues, like human trafficking, to build trust. | | | Writing in The New York Times, Ruchir Sharma seeks to dissuade the Fed (and other central banks) from lowering interest rates, despite President Trump's repeated browbeating. Cutting rates might be a natural response to the global economic slowdown—"[e]veryone wants the recovery to last and more easy money seems like the obvious way to achieve that goal," Sharma writes—but free-flowing credit increases inequality and could lead to another financial crisis, he argues.
Easy credit helps the rich disproportionately by boosting financial markets, "since the wealthy own the bulk of stocks and bonds," Sharma writes. It also encourages risky borrowing, loads up the system with debt, and encourages under-producing "zombie" firms that stay afloat on credit. According to a July 15 report by the Institute of International Finance, global debt reached $246 trillion ($2 trillion shy of its historic high in 2018), supporting Sharma's conclusion that "[o]ur economy is hooked on easy money—and it is a dangerous addiction." | | Is US Military Hardware Out of Date? | | As Fareed recently noted, not only is America's military budget bloated, it reflects errant priorities: Congress pours money into tanks, for instance, while adversaries like Russia and China seek to develop technological advancements like hypersonic missiles, anti-satellite weapons, cyber capabilities, and AI.
Writing for The Atlantic, Thomas G. Mahnken and Roger Zakheim echo that point, taking President Trump's July 4 military parade as an opportunity to dub American military hardware an "antiques road show." In America's recent military campaigns, drones, special forces, and mine-resistant vehicles have been more important than previous-generation tanks and planes, they argue. The US is investing in more-advanced systems, but they need to take greater priority, the authors suggest, writing that "the Defense Department took a quarter-century respite from thinking seriously about the need to fight wars against capable adversaries." | | Can China Clean Up Belt and Road? | | China's massive Belt and Road Initiative has run up against a fundamental conundrum, James Dorsey writes at LobeLog. Anti-corruption measures have been a hallmark of President Xi Jinping's rise and tenure, but Belt and Road infrastructure projects operate in countries where corruption is rampant, and the projects themselves have suffered from accusations that they lack transparency.
To address this, China has been embedding inspectors in some of its projects, to beef up corruption monitoring, Dorsey writes. China also has a longstanding preference not to meddle in other countries' domestic policies, and to the extent that accusations of corruption dog Belt and Road as an important Chinese initiative on the world stage, that presents a riddle for Beijing, Dorsey writes: "[C]an China successfully guard against corruption in Belt and Road projects without pressuring recipient countries to adopt broader transparency and anti-corruption measures?" | | | | | | |
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